Archive for non-farm payrolls

ADP vs. NFP Chart

This morning’s stronger than expected ADP report sparked some optimism for tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls release. Over the past 12 months, ADP has consistently underestimated NFPs which means that non-farm payrolls could be much stronger than expected. The current forecast calls for job growth of 105k. The following chart shows how ADP underestimated [...]

What Currency to Buy if Non-Farm Payrolls are Strong?

Barclay’s argues that if non-farm payrolls surprise to the upside, the Canadian dollar will be the best performer.
How does an investor position for such an upside surprise? The temptation is to be long the USD against a currency with a high sensitivity to US interest rates such as the JPY. However, with the [...]

Dollar: How Could it React to Non-Farm Payrolls?

The forecast for non-farm payrolls is 150k. The whisper number is 500k. Such a wide range of forecasts means that SOMEONE will be surprised. Expect tomorrow to be a crazy day. Here’s my scenario analysis for non-farm payrolls:
The 580k hyperbolic forecast has caused many foreign exchange traders to position for a very [...]

Non-Farm Payrolls Instant Insight

Living up to its reputation, the non-farm payrolls report triggered sharp volatility across the financial markets. The U.S. dollar dropped below 82 against the Japanese Yen while the EUR/USD climbed within 15 pips of 1.40 against the euro on the heels of the NFP release. According to the latest labor market report, American [...]

Very Good Non-Farm Payrolls Report

I published this report on FX360.com this morning (if you haven’t read it already)
The U.S. dollar skyrocketed after the stronger than expected non-farm payrolls report. Not only did the headline number surprise to the upside, but private sector job growth beat expectations with the July figures also revised sharply higher. This positive [...]

Update on USDJPY and US Yields

Yields on short-term US Treasury debt have fallen to the lowest in history on mounting expectations of extra stimulus from the Federal Reserve. USD/JPY has been doing nothing but tracking yields which means that until yields bottom, USD/JPY will remain under pressure. I’ve been talking about this for weeks now - here’s an updated [...]

Comments on Payrolls and Euro Decline

I was on the Business News Network this morning discussing the non-farm payrolls release and the decline in the EUR/USD. Click on the image to access the video

Payrolls, Greece and USD/CAD

So My Favorite EUR/GBP Setup was a complete dud - but you win some and you lose some .
Here are some recent sound bites from articles that I have written on Non-farm Payrolls, Greece and Beyond
If Non-Farm Payrolls Was Strong, Why Did the Unemployment Rate Rise?
We saw an erratic reaction in the forex [...]

Dollar’s Reaction to Payrolls Should Last

The dollar surged after the non-farm payrolls report because job growth excluding census workers was very strong.
With the absence of U.S. equity traders, we did not see the risk rally that tends to occur near the U.S. equity market open. Based upon how the dollar traded after the NFP report in April 2007, [...]

How Will Payrolls Be Affected by Good Friday?

Yhe first question that comes to mind is how the Good Friday holiday could affect volatility in the currency market. Holidays usually mean less liquidity and less volatility but when there is a piece of economic data scheduled for release as important as non-farm payrolls, less liquidity could mean greater volatility. The last [...]