Archive for Federal Reserve

BNN Video Interview: Outlook for EUR, USD

I was on the Business News Network this morning talking about Greece and the outlook for the euro and U.S. dollar. Click on the image to access the video

Fed: Data Shows Mkt Pricing in Q2 Rate Hike?

It has been a while since I provided updated numbers for the market’s rate hike expectations and I will chalk it up to my travels! Rate expectations are always changing and a lot has happened over the past month. Its always important to keep track of them because they reflect what investors are [...]

Federal Reserve’s 5 Step Exit Strategy

According to the minutes from the April Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, here is the 5 step exit strategy that policymakers prefer at this time:
1) End QE2 in June
2) Stop reinvestment some time this yr
3) Remove the “extended period” language in Q4 or early 2012
4) Raise interest rates
5) Start selling assets in 2012/2013
Nearly all of [...]

Compare the April FOMC Statement

The Fed just released the April FOMC statement and I have highlighted all of the changes. As you can see, the only major change is their acknowledgment of inflationary pressures. Unfortunately they still believe the effects of higher prices will be transitory which means that rising prices are not enough to convince them [...]

BNN Interview: Outlook for U.S. Dollar and FOMC

I was on the Business News Network this afternoon talking about the Fed FOMC meeting and the outlook for the U.S. dollar, CAD, AUD and other pairs. Click on the image to access the video
Sorry for the Radio Silence lately but I have been working hard on my new presentations for Singapore - leaving [...]

100bp of Tightening Priced in for ECB?! See Latest G7 Rate Hike Expectations

Rate hike expectations are always changing and its important to keep track of them because they reflect what investors are pricing in.
Here are the latest numbers and highlights (compared to last week)
Fed - One 25bp rate hike expected by Q1 2012 > Minor increase in implied policy changes
BoE - 50bp rate hike priced [...]

Comparing the March and Jan FOMC Statements

Compare the changes made to March FOMC statement with the Jan one.

FOMC Statement January 26, 2011
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December confirms that the economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring about a significant improvement in labor market conditions. Growth in household spending [...]

FOMC Table: How Has US Economy Changed Since Last Fed Meeting?

The Federal Reserve is gearing up for tomorrow’s FOMC announcement. Here’s a look at how the economy and economic data has fared since the last Fed meeting:

Why Higher Oil is Negative for the Dollar

I have written my own piece on How Oil Prices Impact the U.S. Dollar but Jens Nordvig of Nomura has an equally thorough take that is worth reading:
What does the spike in oil prices mean for the dollar?
Recent memories suggest that higher oil prices are bad news for the dollar. First, we have been [...]

Forex: Major Changes to Rate Hike Expectations

Over the past 3 weeks, central banks around the world have made a number of comments that have affected rate hike expectations. On Jan 27th, I showed where rate hike expectations were at the time and since then a number of interesting changes have occurred.
First, the market is now pricing in a 25bp rate [...]