Archive for Federal Reserve

What are Central Banks Expected to do in 2012?

The New Year has begun and it is important to see what the market is pricing in for central banks this year. As you may know, central bank rate hike expectations change often but as of last week, most central banks are expected to keep monetary policy unchanged in the coming year but one [...]

FOMC Voters 2012 Dove Hawk Scale

The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee changes dramatically in 2012. Gone are Evans (the most dovish member of the FOMC), Fisher, Plosser and Kocherlakota (the Trio of hawks) and in comes Lacker, Pianalto, Lockhart and Williams. Three hawks and one dove will now be replaced with three doves and one hawk. We can [...]

Tables: US and EZ Economic Performance Since Last Recession

We have FOMC and ECB meetings in the next 24 hours. Here’s some info on how economic data has fared since the last meeting.
US: Not Doing So Bad

ECB: Nothing but Weakness, Skirting Recession

BNN Video Interview: Outlook for FOMC Meeting

I was on the Business News Network this afternoon talking about the outlook for the FOMC meeting. Click on the image to access the video

What Investors Expect Central Banks to Do in 2011 and 2012

Central Bank Interest Rate Expectations can and do change based upon economic and market developments. The last time I provided updated CB expectations was in July (yes, I apologize for being tardy) but since then we have seen major changes in investors expect central banks to do this year and next.
Here are the [...]

FOMC Statement: The Key Changes

Here is my annotated version of the key changes to the June 2011 FOMC Statements

Table: Changes to Fed GDP, Unemployment Forecasts

Here are the changes to the Fed’s forecasts

Charts: How End of QE Could Impact EURUSD and USDJPY

By the end of this month, the Federal Reserve will have completed its asset purchase program, bringing its second round of Quantitative Easing to an end. As QE2 draws to a close, it is worthwhile to consider how the dollar could react. When the first round of Quantitative Easing came to an end, [...]

BNN Video Interview: Outlook for EUR, USD

I was on the Business News Network this morning talking about Greece and the outlook for the euro and U.S. dollar. Click on the image to access the video

Fed: Data Shows Mkt Pricing in Q2 Rate Hike?

It has been a while since I provided updated numbers for the market’s rate hike expectations and I will chalk it up to my travels! Rate expectations are always changing and a lot has happened over the past month. Its always important to keep track of them because they reflect what investors are [...]