Archive for Fed rate hike

Tables: US and EZ Economic Performance Since Last Recession

We have FOMC and ECB meetings in the next 24 hours. Here’s some info on how economic data has fared since the last meeting.
US: Not Doing So Bad

ECB: Nothing but Weakness, Skirting Recession

BNN Video Interview: Outlook for EUR, USD

I was on the Business News Network this morning talking about Greece and the outlook for the euro and U.S. dollar. Click on the image to access the video

Fed: Data Shows Mkt Pricing in Q2 Rate Hike?

It has been a while since I provided updated numbers for the market’s rate hike expectations and I will chalk it up to my travels! Rate expectations are always changing and a lot has happened over the past month. Its always important to keep track of them because they reflect what investors are [...]

Federal Reserve’s 5 Step Exit Strategy

According to the minutes from the April Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, here is the 5 step exit strategy that policymakers prefer at this time:
1) End QE2 in June
2) Stop reinvestment some time this yr
3) Remove the “extended period” language in Q4 or early 2012
4) Raise interest rates
5) Start selling assets in 2012/2013
Nearly all of [...]

100bp of Tightening Priced in for ECB?! See Latest G7 Rate Hike Expectations

Rate hike expectations are always changing and its important to keep track of them because they reflect what investors are pricing in.
Here are the latest numbers and highlights (compared to last week)
Fed - One 25bp rate hike expected by Q1 2012 > Minor increase in implied policy changes
BoE - 50bp rate hike priced [...]

Comparing the March and Jan FOMC Statements

Compare the changes made to March FOMC statement with the Jan one.

FOMC Statement January 26, 2011
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December confirms that the economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring about a significant improvement in labor market conditions. Growth in household spending [...]

Forex: Major Changes to Rate Hike Expectations

Over the past 3 weeks, central banks around the world have made a number of comments that have affected rate hike expectations. On Jan 27th, I showed where rate hike expectations were at the time and since then a number of interesting changes have occurred.
First, the market is now pricing in a 25bp rate [...]

Comparing the FOMC Statements - Jan 2011

Curious about the changes in the FOMC statement? I did the work for you and highlighted the ONLY things that changed from December and whether it constituted an upgrade or downgrade

FOMC Statement December 14, 2010
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November confirms that the economic recovery is continuing, though at [...]

Fed Announcement - Four Possible Scenarios

The biggest event in the forex market this week will be tomorrow’s Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement. On FX360.com, I published an extensive article talking about what the Fed may or may not do (FOMC Preview: The Key Language Changes to Look for)
Here are the possible scenarios for the U.S. dollar:
A) Fed uses [...]

CNBC Interview: What the Fed’s Discount Rate Hike Means for Forex

I was on CNBC Squawk Box Australia this evening talking about the implications of the Fed’s discount rate hike on the forex markets.