Archive for euro

CNBC Video: My Outlook for Euro

Here’s a clip from my CNBC Asia Guest Hosting slot last night. We talked about the EU Summit and my outlook plus levels for EUR

PIIGS - Italy Sovereign Debt Outstanding

Contagion fears have rattled the markets today with everyone worried about the crisis spreading to Italy. The reason why investors are so nervous today is because the Italian economy and its total amount of debt outstanding far exceeds that of Greece. The following chart shows the total amount of foreign claims on [...]

EUR: 6 Hurdles to Overcome Greek Debt Crisis

Why has the rally in the EUR been so lackluster? Because there are a still 4 3 more hurdles to overcome before we can put the Greek debt crisis behind us.
The Greeks have jumped over 2 hoops on their own with one more expected to be cleared once the Greek implementation vote is completed [...]

Which Countries are Most Exposed to Greece

Here’s an awesome graphic of which countries are most exposed to Greek debt. If Greece defaults, France and Germany will suffer the most

Chart: Euro and Impact of Joint Intervention

The following chart shows how the EUR/USD traded after the G7 joint intervention in Sept 2000. The EUR/USD made a new low and the ECB followed up with more intervention a month later which finally carved out the bottom. Will USD/JPY behave the same way?

EUR: Implications of Turn in IMM-COT Positioning

There has been a lot of chatter this morning about how non-commercial or speculative euro positioning turned positive for the first time in 8 weeks. But some people may be wondering, what does this really mean? To answer this question, I put together the following chart. The Green Line is the EUR/USD and [...]

Euro: Points of Resistance

The EUR/USD has enjoyed a tremendous rally today thanks to weaker U.S. economic data, hawkish comments from ECB President Trichet and successful bond auctions in Spain and Portugal. The rally in the EUR/USD is the strongest in nearly 3 months and has led many people to believe that the downtrend in the EUR/USD is [...]

Portugal: The Third Domino to Fall

What does this mean for the euro? Any rally should be seen as an opportunity to sell at a higher level.

The big story in the financial market today is Portugal - the next domino expected to fall. According to a poll conducted by Reuters, 85% of dealers expect Portugal to receive a bailout. [...]

Euro - Down Baby, Down

Down baby, down. Who said 1.30 is not possible (Not me - Bearish euro calls)? Trouble begets more trouble. As I said on my twitter feed twitter.com/kathyliefx no one wants to own euros. Irish, Portuguese and Spanish 5 year CDS spreads have all widened (What are Credit Default Swaps?). I expect more [...]

Update on Bearish EUR, AUD and CAD Calls

I have received alot of notes on my bearish AUD, EUR and CAD calls, so here is a quick update. If you missed the call, I’ve copied all the info below. Updates in RED.
1) Short EUR - Looking good. Would be smart to take off half here, still looking for [...]