Archive for ECB

ECB Rate Decision and Impact on EUR

- Rates currently at 1.00%
- 25bp rate hike completely priced in for Thurs
- 50bp priced in by June
- 100bp priced in by end of year
The most anticipated event risk this week is the ECB’s monetary policy decision on Thursday and the euro has rallied strongly ahead of the announcement. For the first time in 2 [...]

How Much Further Can the EUR Rise?

Sorry for the radio silence - have been on vacation then corporate craziness
The euro staged a remarkable rally today after dipping as low as 1.4060 following the U.S. non-farm payrolls release. The resilience of the single currency is incredibly impressive considering that Standard & Poor’s downgraded Ireland’s sovereign debt rating and Fitch warned [...]

100bp of Tightening Priced in for ECB?! See Latest G7 Rate Hike Expectations

Rate hike expectations are always changing and its important to keep track of them because they reflect what investors are pricing in.
Here are the latest numbers and highlights (compared to last week)
Fed - One 25bp rate hike expected by Q1 2012 > Minor increase in implied policy changes
BoE - 50bp rate hike priced [...]

What German - US Yields are Telling us About EUR/USD

Over the past year, the German-US 10 year yield has been a fantastic leading indicator for the EUR/USD. Following Trichet’s latest comments, the spread has soared which in turn points to further gains in the EUR/USD!

EUR/USD Headed for 1.40 after ECB?

The EUR/USD ripped higher after ECB President Trichet telegraphed a possible rate hike next month. The rise in oil prices has hit a cord with the central bank, prompting them to step on the accelerator and get moving with curbing inflation pressures. Not only did Trichet use the magic words “strong vigilance,” [...]

Forex: Major Changes to Rate Hike Expectations

Over the past 3 weeks, central banks around the world have made a number of comments that have affected rate hike expectations. On Jan 27th, I showed where rate hike expectations were at the time and since then a number of interesting changes have occurred.
First, the market is now pricing in a 25bp rate [...]

How Far Can USD/JPY Fall?

The U.S. dollar fell to a 7 month low against the Japanese Yen this morning following another barrage of weak economic data. Consumer prices fell, foreign inflows decreased and the UMich consumer confidence survey dropped to the lowest level since August 2009. On FX360.com, I talked incessantly in my daily report about how [...]

How Much Further Can the euro Fall?

How much further can the euro fall? I spoke with Bloomberg on Friday about the outlook for the currency pair and potential targets. Enjoy:

Find more videos like this on www.truveo.com.

Why Fitch Downgrade of Portugal is So Damaging for Euro

With rating agency Fitch downgrading Portugal’s sovereign debt rating and Germany continuing to whine about bailing out Greece, who can blame forex traders for dumping euros? A flight to quality pushed the euro to a 10 month low against the U.S. dollar and now there is no major support in the EUR/USD until 1.30. [...]

Updated Seminars - Coming to Singapore

I will be on Bloomberg Television today at 1:20pm talking about the FOMC rate decision.
I just wanted to let everyone know that I will be in Singapore next week speaking at the Investfair. If you are around the area, come and see one of the presentations! I will also be giving a Forex [...]