Archive for Australian Dollar

RBA Rate Decision: What to Expect for the AUD

The Reserve Bank of Australia has a monetary policy announcement this evening and even though interest rates are not expected to be changed, the tone of the statement could seal the fate of the Aussie by determining whether it makes a run for 1.05 or falls back towards parity. The key with the RBA [...]

100bp of Tightening Priced in for ECB?! See Latest G7 Rate Hike Expectations

Rate hike expectations are always changing and its important to keep track of them because they reflect what investors are pricing in.
Here are the latest numbers and highlights (compared to last week)
Fed - One 25bp rate hike expected by Q1 2012 > Minor increase in implied policy changes
BoE - 50bp rate hike priced [...]

Is the Japanese Quake Bullish or Bearish for the AUD?

Two competing factors has made assessing the impact of the Japanese earthquake on the Australian economy and the Australian dollar difficult. First, Japanese investors hold approximately $60 billion in Australian assets and own an additional $15 billion worth of Australian Uridashi bonds, which are denominated in Australian dollars but sold directly to Japanese investors. [...]

Forex: Major Changes to Rate Hike Expectations

Over the past 3 weeks, central banks around the world have made a number of comments that have affected rate hike expectations. On Jan 27th, I showed where rate hike expectations were at the time and since then a number of interesting changes have occurred.
First, the market is now pricing in a 25bp rate [...]

Charting the AUD/USD

Take a look at the Australian dollar chart below. Do you see the head and shoulders / triple top formation that I see? =)
The Australian employment numbers didnt make anyone happy. A deeper pullback is likely but I don’t except the AUD/USD to trade much lower than 99 cents. Remember the hawkish [...]

Charting AUD/NZD: Turn Achieved

Approximately 2.5 weeks ago, I posted a chart showing how a turn is in the making in AUD/NZD. At the time,the currency pair was trading at 1.3050. It dipped afterwards but has finally achieved the turn that I was looking for - which is a move to the opposite second standard deviation Bollinger [...]

AUD: Which Commodity is it Tracking?

The Australian dollar is on a tear this morning thanks to the upbeat tone of the Reserve Bank and their nonchalant comments about the floods. As a commodity currency, the Australian dollar has a very strong correlation with commodity prices. However contrary to popular beliefs, the Aussie’s correlation with gold prices have not been [...]

BNN Video: Outlook for EUR, AUD and CAD

I was on the Business News Network this morning talking about the euro, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar. Click on the image to access the video. Enjoy!

Charting AUD/NZD: A Turn in the Making?

Since the middle of December, AUD/NZD has fallen more than 5 percent. The weakness of the currency pair is more a function of the problems in Australia than the strength in New Zealand. The floods in Queensland sent the Aussie tumbling as investors grew concerned about the impact on the economy. However [...]

BNN Video: AUD, JPY and CAD Outlook

I was on the Business News Network this AM talking about the floods in Australia, Japan’s pledge to buy European bonds and the Canadian dollar. Enjoy! Click on the image to watch the video