Archive for Australian Dollar

What are Central Banks Expected to do in 2012?

The New Year has begun and it is important to see what the market is pricing in for central banks this year. As you may know, central bank rate hike expectations change often but as of last week, most central banks are expected to keep monetary policy unchanged in the coming year but one [...]

CNBC Interview: Outlook for AUD and JPY

I was on CNBC Squawk Box Australia last night talking about the Australian dollar, China and Japanese Yen with Karen Cho

ECB to Leave Rates Unchanged for Rest of the Yr? RBA to Cut?

Even though ECB President Trichet was quite clear last week in signaling that rate hikes are not over, based upon interest rate futures, investors are actually pricing in NO RATE HIKES for the rest of the year and into the first half of 2012.
Since the beginning of the year, the ECB insisted that [...]

July Rate Expectations: No Moves Expect for ECB in 2011

The latest economic developments have caused investors to push out their rate expectations for all of the major central banks. In May, the ECB, BoC and RBA were all expected to raise rates before the end of the year and now aside from the ECB no one is expected to tighten. Rate expectations [...]

What Now for the AUD?

Last night, the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged at 4.75 percent. Many investors were looking for hawkish comments from the central bank but as suspected, the RBA failed to deliver. Given the recent deterioration in economic data (that we showed in our Australian Data Table), I was a bit surprised by [...]

How Has the Australian Economy Changed Since May?

Here’s a look at how the Australian Economy has Changed Since May

RBA Meeting: Don’t Rule Out a Disappointment

It is going to be a busy night in Australia with the Reserve Bank gearing up for its next monetary policy announcement. The last time the RBA met was on May 3rd and at the time, the central bank left rates unchanged even though they expected inflation to rise because they felt the strong [...]

CNBC Interview: Reacting to the Calls for AUD to 1.70

Here is the second video from my CNBC Guest Hosting gig this AM from Singapore where I talk about the Aussie, commodity prices and commodity currencies:

Has the RBA Announcement Marked a Top in AUD?

The Reserve Bank of Australia made it very clear last night that they do not plan to raise interest rates in the foreseeable future. Despite the rise in commodity prices, the RBA expressed little concern about inflation. As a result, the AUD/USD extended its losses as investors realized that unlike the ECB and [...]

Historical Chart: RBA and Turning Points in AUD

The last 3 times the RBA made a monetary policy announcement, a small to large reversal was triggered in the Australian dollar. RBA rate decisions can frequently mark a top or bottom in a currency - this does not happen 100 percent of the time, but given the number of considerations that go into [...]