Archive for australian dollar forecast

CNBC Interview: Outlook for AUD and JPY

I was on CNBC Squawk Box Australia last night talking about the Australian dollar, China and Japanese Yen with Karen Cho

July Rate Expectations: No Moves Expect for ECB in 2011

The latest economic developments have caused investors to push out their rate expectations for all of the major central banks. In May, the ECB, BoC and RBA were all expected to raise rates before the end of the year and now aside from the ECB no one is expected to tighten. Rate expectations [...]

What Now for the AUD?

Last night, the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged at 4.75 percent. Many investors were looking for hawkish comments from the central bank but as suspected, the RBA failed to deliver. Given the recent deterioration in economic data (that we showed in our Australian Data Table), I was a bit surprised by [...]

How Has the Australian Economy Changed Since May?

Here’s a look at how the Australian Economy has Changed Since May

RBA Meeting: Don’t Rule Out a Disappointment

It is going to be a busy night in Australia with the Reserve Bank gearing up for its next monetary policy announcement. The last time the RBA met was on May 3rd and at the time, the central bank left rates unchanged even though they expected inflation to rise because they felt the strong [...]

BNN Interview: Outlook for CAD, USD and AUD

I was on the Business News Network earlier this afternoon talking about my outlook for the Canadian, U.S. and Australian dollars. Click the image to access the video:

CNBC Interview: Reacting to the Calls for AUD to 1.70

Here is the second video from my CNBC Guest Hosting gig this AM from Singapore where I talk about the Aussie, commodity prices and commodity currencies:

Historical Chart: RBA and Turning Points in AUD

The last 3 times the RBA made a monetary policy announcement, a small to large reversal was triggered in the Australian dollar. RBA rate decisions can frequently mark a top or bottom in a currency - this does not happen 100 percent of the time, but given the number of considerations that go into [...]

100bp of Tightening Priced in for ECB?! See Latest G7 Rate Hike Expectations

Rate hike expectations are always changing and its important to keep track of them because they reflect what investors are pricing in.
Here are the latest numbers and highlights (compared to last week)
Fed - One 25bp rate hike expected by Q1 2012 > Minor increase in implied policy changes
BoE - 50bp rate hike priced [...]

Charting the AUD/USD

Take a look at the Australian dollar chart below. Do you see the head and shoulders / triple top formation that I see? =)
The Australian employment numbers didnt make anyone happy. A deeper pullback is likely but I don’t except the AUD/USD to trade much lower than 99 cents. Remember the hawkish [...]