Archive for aud/usd

FOMC, ECB, RBA Meetings: What is Priced in?

The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia have monetary policy meetings scheduled this week and some investors expect these central banks to change monetary policy. Here’s what the market is pricing in according to interest rate futures. You can compare them with the Central Bank expectations back in September. [...]

CNBC Interview: Outlook for AUD and JPY

I was on CNBC Squawk Box Australia last night talking about the Australian dollar, China and Japanese Yen with Karen Cho

July Rate Expectations: No Moves Expect for ECB in 2011

The latest economic developments have caused investors to push out their rate expectations for all of the major central banks. In May, the ECB, BoC and RBA were all expected to raise rates before the end of the year and now aside from the ECB no one is expected to tighten. Rate expectations [...]

What Now for the AUD?

Last night, the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged at 4.75 percent. Many investors were looking for hawkish comments from the central bank but as suspected, the RBA failed to deliver. Given the recent deterioration in economic data (that we showed in our Australian Data Table), I was a bit surprised by [...]

How Has the Australian Economy Changed Since May?

Here’s a look at how the Australian Economy has Changed Since May

CNBC Interview: Reacting to the Calls for AUD to 1.70

Here is the second video from my CNBC Guest Hosting gig this AM from Singapore where I talk about the Aussie, commodity prices and commodity currencies:

Has the RBA Announcement Marked a Top in AUD?

The Reserve Bank of Australia made it very clear last night that they do not plan to raise interest rates in the foreseeable future. Despite the rise in commodity prices, the RBA expressed little concern about inflation. As a result, the AUD/USD extended its losses as investors realized that unlike the ECB and [...]

Historical Chart: RBA and Turning Points in AUD

The last 3 times the RBA made a monetary policy announcement, a small to large reversal was triggered in the Australian dollar. RBA rate decisions can frequently mark a top or bottom in a currency - this does not happen 100 percent of the time, but given the number of considerations that go into [...]

RBA Rate Decision: What to Expect for the AUD

The Reserve Bank of Australia has a monetary policy announcement this evening and even though interest rates are not expected to be changed, the tone of the statement could seal the fate of the Aussie by determining whether it makes a run for 1.05 or falls back towards parity. The key with the RBA [...]

100bp of Tightening Priced in for ECB?! See Latest G7 Rate Hike Expectations

Rate hike expectations are always changing and its important to keep track of them because they reflect what investors are pricing in.
Here are the latest numbers and highlights (compared to last week)
Fed - One 25bp rate hike expected by Q1 2012 > Minor increase in implied policy changes
BoE - 50bp rate hike priced [...]