Archive for 2011 euro forecast

How Much Further Can the EUR Rise?

Sorry for the radio silence - have been on vacation then corporate craziness
The euro staged a remarkable rally today after dipping as low as 1.4060 following the U.S. non-farm payrolls release. The resilience of the single currency is incredibly impressive considering that Standard & Poor’s downgraded Ireland’s sovereign debt rating and Fitch warned [...]

100bp of Tightening Priced in for ECB?! See Latest G7 Rate Hike Expectations

Rate hike expectations are always changing and its important to keep track of them because they reflect what investors are pricing in.
Here are the latest numbers and highlights (compared to last week)
Fed - One 25bp rate hike expected by Q1 2012 > Minor increase in implied policy changes
BoE - 50bp rate hike priced [...]

What German - US Yields are Telling us About EUR/USD

Over the past year, the German-US 10 year yield has been a fantastic leading indicator for the EUR/USD. Following Trichet’s latest comments, the spread has soared which in turn points to further gains in the EUR/USD!

CNBC Interview: Outlook for GBP, JPY, AUD, NZD

I was on CNBC Asia last night talking about the outlook for the British pound, Japanese Yen, Australian and New Zealand dollars. Was a tough one considering that I had laryngitis for most of the day! Can you tell?

CNBC Video: Outlook for Euro

I was on CNBC last night talking about the outlook for the euro. Here’s the video:

Forex: Tracking Central Bank Rate Hike Expectations

Wondering when a central bank is set to raise interest rates? Here’s what the market pricing in for each of the major central banks. As you can see, a full 25bp of tightening has not been priced in for the U.S. In contrast, the market expects 2 quarter point hikes from the BoE, [...]

EUR: Implications of Turn in IMM-COT Positioning

There has been a lot of chatter this morning about how non-commercial or speculative euro positioning turned positive for the first time in 8 weeks. But some people may be wondering, what does this really mean? To answer this question, I put together the following chart. The Green Line is the EUR/USD and [...]

Will EUR Get Help from Eurogroup Ecofin Meeting?

The rally in the EUR/USD has stopped short of a VERY important resistance level. As circled in the chart below, Friday’s high coincided with the 100-day SMA, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the November to January sell-off AND recent highs. Some people may even argue that there is a triple (maybe quadruple?) top [...]

Euro: Points of Resistance

The EUR/USD has enjoyed a tremendous rally today thanks to weaker U.S. economic data, hawkish comments from ECB President Trichet and successful bond auctions in Spain and Portugal. The rally in the EUR/USD is the strongest in nearly 3 months and has led many people to believe that the downtrend in the EUR/USD is [...]

Portugal: The Third Domino to Fall

What does this mean for the euro? Any rally should be seen as an opportunity to sell at a higher level.

The big story in the financial market today is Portugal - the next domino expected to fall. According to a poll conducted by Reuters, 85% of dealers expect Portugal to receive a bailout. [...]