Archive for 2011 euro forecast

What EZ Bond Yields Imply About S&P Downgrades

Since Standard & Poor’s cut the ratings of 9 Eurozone countries, the euro has done nothing but rally. One of the main reasons why the EUR/USD has been so resilient is because the downgrades had very little impact on European bond yields. French and Spanish bond yields have increased but by less than [...]

CNBC Video: Whats in Store for Euro

Talking euro on CNBC Asia last night

CNBC Video: Whats in Store for Euro

Talking euro on CNBC Asia last night

FOMC, ECB, RBA Meetings: What is Priced in?

The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia have monetary policy meetings scheduled this week and some investors expect these central banks to change monetary policy. Here’s what the market is pricing in according to interest rate futures. You can compare them with the Central Bank expectations back in September. [...]

ECB to Leave Rates Unchanged for Rest of the Yr? RBA to Cut?

Even though ECB President Trichet was quite clear last week in signaling that rate hikes are not over, based upon interest rate futures, investors are actually pricing in NO RATE HIKES for the rest of the year and into the first half of 2012.
Since the beginning of the year, the ECB insisted that [...]

July Rate Expectations: No Moves Expect for ECB in 2011

The latest economic developments have caused investors to push out their rate expectations for all of the major central banks. In May, the ECB, BoC and RBA were all expected to raise rates before the end of the year and now aside from the ECB no one is expected to tighten. Rate expectations [...]

CNBC Interview: End of QE Trade

EUR/USD: Past Reaction to Strong Vigilance Words

The big focus tomorrow is on ECB President Trichet’s press conference. The European Central Bank is not expected to raise interest rates, but Trichet IS expected to pave the for a rate hike in July. Over the past few years, the words “Strong Vigilance” have been synonymous with “interest rates will be increased next [...]

CNBC Interview: Outlook for EUR and USD

I was on CNBC last night talking about the outlook for the euro and U.S. dollar. If you caught the live hit, you would have heard me talk about the EUR/USD and how the rally yesterday should not be mistaken for a turn in the EUR/USD. “The sovereign debt troubles still plague the currency”

Fed: Data Shows Mkt Pricing in Q2 Rate Hike?

It has been a while since I provided updated numbers for the market’s rate hike expectations and I will chalk it up to my travels! Rate expectations are always changing and a lot has happened over the past month. Its always important to keep track of them because they reflect what investors are [...]