Archive for February, 2012

Visual Representation of Greek CDS Activation Process

For those of you that need a visual representation of how the Greek CDS Payment Activation process will play out. Here’s the most probable step by step process:

Charts: Why USD/JPY Could Head MUCH Higher

USD/JPY has been on a tear lately but this could be the beginning of an even stronger rally. I don’t use Ichimoku charts at all but this pattern is so significant that I have to mention it. The first chart shows that we are at the cusp of a weekly close above the Ichimoku [...]

Chart: ECB LTRO Reaction in EUR and Stocks

Next week, the ECB will conducting their second long term refinancing operation. The impact of their first LTRO was significant - in fact, it sparked the stock market rally. If the uptake next week is anywhere close to EUR1 trillion, we could see a similar reaction. The following chart shows how the [...]

Chart: ECB LTRO Reaction in EUR and Stocks

Next week, the ECB will conducting their second long term refinancing operation. The impact of their first LTRO was significant - in fact, it sparked the stock market rally. If the uptake next week is anywhere close to EUR1 trillion, we could see a similar reaction. The following chart shows how the [...]

Chart: USDJPY and U.S. Yields

USD/JPY has been on a tear since the beginning of the month in large part due to rising U.S. yields. Based on the following chart, the slope of the recent rally in USD/JPY is much steeper than the slope of the 2 year U.S. Treasury yield which suggests that either the run in [...]

STOP Trading to Win

Every great trading idea I’ve ever had has come to me in bath. Lest you think I’ve completely turned into a teenage girl - don’t worry, no scented candles, or flower petals for me. I turn on the water to scolding hot and fill up my ugly but massive pre-World War II bathtub to the [...]

Lin for the Win?

Linsanity? Hardly. For the few human beings on this planet who have no clue of what I am talking about, I am of course, referring to Jeremy Lin - the new sensational point guard of the New York Knicks who has caught the imagination of fans from Brooklyn to Beijing and every point in [...]

Chart - How EURUSD Performs During Election Years

2012 is a big year for politics with 10 countries holding Presidential Elections. The potential leadership changes in the United States, France, Russia, Venezuela, Hong Kong, Finland, India, South Korea, Mexico and Taiwan are all important, but some more so than others. For example, the outcome of the elections in Hong Kong, Finland [...]

Chart - How EURUSD Performs During Election Years

2012 is a big year for politics with 10 countries holding Presidential Elections. The potential leadership changes in the United States, France, Russia, Venezuela, Hong Kong, Finland, India, South Korea, Mexico and Taiwan are all important, but some more so than others. For example, the outcome of the elections in Hong Kong, Finland [...]

Central Bank Rate Hike Expectations - Who is Expected to Ease

Central banks have been particularly vocal since the beginning of the year, either by expressing their skepticism or satisfaction with the easing of credit conditions and incoming economic data. For some countries, this has changed rate hike expectations, for others it simply confirms existing views. As you may know, central bank rate hike expectations [...]