Archive for May, 2009
British Pound Highly Correlated to Housing
The British pound has been on a tear lately and part of the reason are the signs of recovery in the housing market. The following chart illustrates the close correlation between the trade weighted value of the GBP (white line) and the HBOS house price index (red line). The sharp increase in the [...]
Scalping, Selection and Success
Forex Trading Tips: The Risks You Know
The Risks You Know
The longer I trade the more I come to the conclusion that you have to trade like a casino or an insurance company. No, I don’t mean that you should start thinking about setting up your own blackjack table or begin offering life insurance products, but rather that you [...]
Outlook for the U.S. Dollar
I was on Bloomberg talking about the outlook for the U.S. Dollar today. Click on the image to access the video:
Chinese Yuan: The New Reserve Currency?
Over the past few years, there has been a lot of talk about whether a new currency will replace the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency. I have often repeated my opinion that this possibility will not become reality over the next 10 years. However, we cannot underestimate the importance of the [...]
Could America Really Lose Its Triple A Rating?
In today’s Financial Times, there is an op-ed article by David Walker, the CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation pondering the possibility of the U.S. losing its prized AAA credit rating. The paper focuses on a warning that was issued by rating agency Moody’s months ago. Moody’s has not issued a new warning, [...]
Australian Dollar Opportunities
I have been VERY bullish the Australian dollar over the past month. When I was in Asia, I appeared on CNBC twice to talk about how the AUD/USD was poised for further gains (CNBC Interview 1, CNBC Interview 2). At that time, the AUD/USD was trading at 71 cents. Now that the pair has [...]
GBP/USD Rally: BoE Having Last Laugh
Many people have criticized the U.K. government’s response to the financial crisis and recession but U.K. officials may be having the last laugh. The latest string of economic data has been surprisingly strong. There are signs of stabilization in both the housing and labor markets. Last week, the Bank of England increased the [...]
Japanese Yen: Trading At Critical Levels
The U.S. dollar has sold off significantly against the Japanese Yen over the past 2 trading days. It is nearing a very important support level. If it breaks that level, we could see a test and potential break of 95. Given that equities are pressuring USD/JPY lower, a “break” of the 95 [...]
